Truck dealers optimistic about 2026-27 Class 8 demand rise

Truck dealers are becoming more optimistic about Class 8 truck and tractor sales prospects in 2026 and 2027, citing a relative lack of economic uncertainty and the need for carriers to renew their fleets.

American Truck DealerAccording to Patrick Manzi, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association, expectations for 2026 Class 8 sales are now 227,000 vehicles, up 7.5% from 210,000 units at the beginning of the year.

Manzi said sales are now expected to total 250,000 vehicles in 2027, a 12% increase compared to a forecast of 220,000 in early 2026. ATD is a division of NADA.

“The business community is realizing that all the uncertainty, whether it’s tariffs, war, whatever, it’s almost like this is kind of the new normal, and we have to accept it and move forward and maybe we go out and take bigger risks than we feel comfortable with, but we need to move forward and buy new equipment,” Manzi told Transportation Topics in an exclusive interview.

Sales were expected to grow in 2025, but tariffs introduced by the Trump administration — including on medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts — deterred investment by carriers uncertain about the macroeconomic environment.

Those same tariffs and other trade policy initiatives together delayed any rebound in the freight market, leading to the industry’s longest downturn in memory.

“Unless we start making these massive policy changes that keep changing again week to week, I think the industry will continue and move forward and make these large capital investments and ultimately buy these trucks,” Manzi said after a presentation to ATD members in Washington as part of the trade group’s annual fly-in trip with congressional delegations.

This is also without expectations that carriers will ramp up purchases to meet the Environmental Protection Agency’s stringent nitrogen oxide emissions deadlines, an expected surge known colloquially as “pre-buying.”

Orders for Class 8 trucks increased year-on-year in May for the sixth consecutive month, totaling 26,500 vehicles, an increase of 103% compared to May 2025. May was the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year increase of 100% or more.

FTR Transportation Intelligence data shows May orders were 56% above the 10-year monthly average of 17,046 units.

However, according to Omdia Automotive data, through the first five months of 2026, Class 8 sales totaled 73,419 vehicles, down 16% from 87,447 in the same period a year earlier.

Truck makers are now playing catch-up after orders for 2025 fell so badly that some production lines were shut down during the first quarter of the year, including Volvo Trucks North America’s flagship Dublin, Virginia facility.

Hyattsville, MD. Located K. Corey Neal, CEO of Neal Truck & Bus Center, told TT that even in a volatile market, dealers are seeing more appetite from carriers and the trend line is moving in the right direction.

“Last year, there was a lot of uncertainty, whether it be tariffs; are they here, are they not? I think we know we have a plan moving forward, and the tariffs are what they are, so now we can execute it based on the current business environment,” said Neal, whose dealership sells International Motors, Hino and Iveco vehicles.

Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ 2026 State of Logistics ReportThe study, released earlier in June, found that uncertainty is now stable in 2026 and is likely to remain so in the years to come.

Carriers are embracing the changes, which include supply-driven capacity cuts, a significant increase in rates for the first time in four years and expectations of a continued improvement in the freight market.