Tonnage during the first five months was 2% higher than in 2025. (Jenny Kane/Associated Press)
key takeaways:
- ATA’s for-hire truck tonnage index fell 2% to 114.4 in May, continuing a two-month slump after a first-quarter gain.
- Soft volumes contrasted with limited capacity as DAT reported higher spot rates, while CAS shipments increased sequentially but were down 1.2% from last year.
- Dhawan said consumer spending will depend on portfolio, sentiment and corporate hiring as the oil price impact could make employers more cautious.
freight tonnage continued to slow down May followed a strong start to the year, but low capacity helped give the market some bounce.
The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declined 2% from last month to 114.4. This reading was 0.6% higher than the number reported in May 2025.
Tonnage had increased by 4.7% during the first three months of the year, but declined by 2.9% in the last two months, the report said. Tonnage during the first five months was 2% higher than in 2025.
“Despite recent declines, the index has risen from year-ago levels for the sixth consecutive month, which is great given the widespread slack in freight drivers like manufacturing and construction,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist.
mixed signals
CAS FREIGHT INDEX SAID SHIPMENT increased by 3% sequentially from 1.011 to 1.041 but down 1.2% from last year’s reading of 1.054. This was the smallest decline in nearly 18 months. The report highlights that several spot indicators suggest an improvement in freight demand, with some sectors seeing growth.
Meanwhile, the Logistics Managers Index, decreased by 0.4 points Reached 69.5 in May from last month. The report said the rate of expansion was slower than the previous month, but was still the second-fastest level of growth since March 2022.
DAT Freight & Analytics reported that truckload spot rates edged higher despite a decline in freight volumes in May. This increase occurred as several factors constrained the supply of available trucks, including International Roadcheck Week, Memorial Day weekend and ongoing driver enforcement. The DAT Truckload Volume Index fell sequentially across all three equipment types.
“May was a record month in the spot market, but that was largely due to Roadcheck Week,” said Dean Crook, principal analyst at DAT. “Since then, dry vans and reefers have been relatively flat. So, the story is that we had record profits at the beginning of the month, and then we’ve maintained those gains through the end of June.”
The Department of Transportation has tightened rules on non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency standards for professional drivers. Kroc suspects that the resulting sensitivity to seasonal trends has helped rates.
“Production is increasing due to the normal seasonal increase after Mother’s Day through July 4 and the World Cup,” Kroc said. “So, if capacity is being exhausted, and then you get this slight bump in demand, which we always do, it maintains the same rates that we saw.”
deja vu
Kroc sees this rate trajectory as reflecting what was happening before the pandemic-era freight surge. They also see some recent improvement in contract flatbed and reefer rates due December 2025 based on previously positive spot trends.
“The U.S. economy has handled the shock of higher gasoline and higher diesel prices much better than people expected three months ago,” said Rajiv Dhawan, director of the Center for Economic Forecasting at Georgia State University. “The consumer is spending reasonably, hasn’t pulled money back and one of the things that helped was tax refunds.”
Dhawan credited recent changes in tax law for helping boost refunds this year. Consumer spending was further supported as the stock market recovered from some early losses over the past few months.
“Going forward, consumer spending power depends on the firepower of their portfolio,” Dhawan said. “Mood, on the other hand, is a different issue.”
consumer complications
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reached an all-time low of 44.8 in May. However, it improved marginally to 48.9 in preliminary June results due to an initial softening of gasoline prices. conference board consumer confidence index It fell 0.7 points to 93.1 in May. Dhawan said much of this divide is due to the lack of growth in white-collar jobs.
“That’s why consumer sentiment numbers are low, because people are looking at their future firepower from the salary and income side,” Dhawan said.
Dhawan said consumers are concerned about future job prospects and whether there will be opportunities for their children and grandchildren. This is further complicated as artificial intelligence poses a threat to entry-level and low-skill jobs. He suspects that corporate hiring, which has slowed as leaders are investing in AI, will help determine the trajectory of consumer spending.
“The Hormuz dispute, and what’s going on in Europe, and what’s going to happen… the effects of the second and third wave of high oil prices of the last three months could make this corporate sector, which is already a little gun-shy, more skeptical about adding to their labor force,” Dhawan said.
