Containers at the Port of Oakland. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)
key takeaways:
- The US goods trade deficit narrowed 4.2% to $101.5 billion in June as imports fell 2.6% and exports fell 1.8%.
- The small deficit reflects weak imports and exports, while AI-related imports, petroleum demand and tariff concerns contributed to recent trade fluctuations.
- More complete trade data for June, including services, is due on August 4 and will help inform estimates of second-quarter GDP growth.
The US goods-trade deficit narrowed in June as a decline in imports offset a decline in exports.
Commerce Department data on July 28 showed the deficit in goods trade decreased 4.2% from the previous month to $101.5 billion. The average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected a deficit of $100 billion. The figures have not been adjusted for inflation.
US goods exports fell 1.8%, while imports fell 2.6% due to a decline in industrial supplies.
The trade deficit has fluctuated in recent months as the Iran war helped boost global demand for US petroleum products and US companies increased imports to supply the artificial intelligence buildout.
Companies are also stockpiling goods and materials as supply chain delays become more widespread and the threat of new tariffs looms, raising concerns about additional price increases.
The advance international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $101.5 billion in June 2026 from $105.9 billion in May 2026 as imports declined more than exports.
learn more: https://t.co/qZYlxNEIvs#CensusEconData #AdvancedInternationalTradeGoods pic.twitter.com/4sKnC1Wncn
– US Census Bureau (@uscensusbureau) 28 July 2026
Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran this month have raised new concerns about shipping disruptions. President Donald Trump also announced new tariffs earlier this month to replace duties removed by the US Supreme Court in February.
Data for July 28 showed that outbound shipments of industrial supplies, where crude oil and petroleum products are counted, fell 4.4% in June. The category also includes non-monetary gold, which has helped fuel volatility over the past year. Exports of volatile consumer goods categories and automotive vehicles surged.
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Meanwhile imports of capital goods – a category that includes computers and accessories, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment – fell for the first time since September, although they remained 37.4% higher than a year earlier. Imports of consumer goods also fell.
Retail inventory figures released along with merchandise trade data showed they were little changed in June. Wholesale inventories increased 0.3%.
Trade and inventory data will help inform the government’s first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, which will be published on July 30. Ahead of the July 28 release, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model projected net exports reducing GDP growth by 1.35 percentage points.
Separate data published earlier this month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that US import prices rose 0.3% in June, while export prices fell 0.6%.
More complete trade data for June, including balances on service accounts, is due on August 4.
