“When you start thinking about turnover in the realm of the cost of losing a driver, you realize the value of saving just one driver,” Dismuke said. (FreshSplash/Getty Images)
key takeaways:
- Survey results for spring 2026 showed that 58.1% of drivers are looking for new truck driving jobs, up from 46.8% a year earlier.
- Tightening driver capacity, regulatory enforcement and improving freight conditions are making retention and recruitment for fleets more competitive, officials said.
- Industry executives said while business could grow as freight traffic improves, carriers will focus on communications, sustainability, miles, home time and driver experience.
As freight demand begins to recover after a long recession, fleets are entering a more competitive labor market, with fewer drivers available and more of them willing to change jobs.
The Spring 2026 Truck Driver Survey showed that a record 58.1% of drivers are looking for a new truck driving job, up from 46.8% during the same period in 2025. The survey was conducted by Conversion Interactive Agency and People. data. The analytics found that changing market conditions are putting pressure on fleets to improve communications, sustainability and driver experience.
Scott Dismuke, vice president of operations at PDA, said the survey shows drivers are highly mobile and carriers cannot assume they will stick around if freight conditions improve.
“When you start thinking about turnover in the realm of the cost of losing a driver, you realize the value of saving just one driver,” Dismuke said.
PDA Research estimates the cost of losing one driver to be approximately $13,000. Dismuke has also heard from partners that recruiting costs are rising this year. The pressure comes as the Transportation Department moves to tighten rules on non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and English-language proficiency standards for professional drivers.
“As long as the federal government continues to implement these policies, I think we’ll see the supply side of it really driving it,” Dismuke said. “When the economy recovers, and we get out of this freight recession that we’ve been in, I think we’re going to have massive driver churn, and we’re at the beginning of that.”
Dismuke said drivers are looking beyond pay and sign-on bonuses. They also want fair treatment, strong communication, quality equipment, and respect. He warned that the pace and scale of any turnover increase will depend on federal enforcement efforts, fuel prices, seasonality, inflation and geopolitical disruptions.
“We’re definitely seeing an increase in turnover among fleets,” said Priscilla Peters, vice president of marketing at Conversion. “There are a lot of different things going on that are clearly putting pressure on the driver pool, and regulatory enforcement as well as improvements in freight traffic are creating more driving jobs.”
Peters said the survey results don’t mean the overall number of drivers looking for work has increased, because the overall pool has gotten smaller. But he said turnover increases when freight markets and carrier rates improve.
“There are many signs that driver capability is declining,” said Tim Crawford, CEO of TenStreet. He said drivers overall are acting cautiously as they wait for clear evidence of a market recovery. “We first saw a huge increase in applications when there was big press about non-domiciled licenses and taking capacity from the market.”
(ShotbyDave/Getty Images)
TenStreet released an analysis on June 4 that found drivers generally remain in their roles as they assess market uncertainty, prioritize human connections and embrace artificial intelligence-powered hiring processes. The analysis found that driver tenure is increasing through the end of 2023, but also indicated that a group of drivers may be ready to move if conditions improve.
Crawford said it will take time for changes in the market – including non-domiciled license enforcement, pressure on chameleon carriers, improved freight rates and flat freight volumes – to impact the way drivers make career decisions.
Crawford said some momentum was building at the beginning of the year before the Iran war disrupted it. Yet he continues to see positive indicators, including higher spot rates and some selective wage increases. He is optimistic that continued improvement will lead to more applications, barring some kind of macroeconomic shock.
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“Freight market capacity has been reduced primarily due to the regulatory environment,” said Luke Wachtel, senior vice president of transportation and logistics at Platform Science. “Well, it’s not a bad thing. Usually it happens for the right reasons. But what’s a little different is that the drivers are aware of it.”
Wachtel said drivers appear to be more aware of market conditions than they were during the turnover boom that began in 2005. This trend was then driven by wages not keeping pace with inflation and growth in manufacturing opportunities. This time, he said, drivers are focused on overall market conditions and capacity cuts, including retirements.
“We are hearing from fleets that they are becoming more competitive among each other to retain or recruit drivers,” Wachtel said, adding that the driver market “has become more competitive again, partly because the capacity – the pool of drivers – has reduced.”
Wachtel said creature comforts are no longer a big differentiator because they have become the norm. He suggested carriers instead focus on optimizing routes to ensure drivers get enough miles and home time, as well as technology that can help them.
