All Outdoors Staff 07.28.26
New model cuts Montana’s wolf population estimate
Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks released its 2025 Annual Wolf Report on Friday with proposed rules for the 2026-27 wolf hunting and trapping season. The report presents a new population and distribution forecast model that estimates the state’s wolf population is significantly lower than the agency previously thought.
The report is based on two systems. The older model, which FWP has used as its primary monitoring method since 2021, projected 181 packs and 1,094 wolves statewide for 2025. The updated model estimates 155 packs and 725 wolves for the same period. Both models identify a decline in wolf populations from 2013 to 2025.
“At this time, both models are being used and presented,” said Nick Danielson, FWP Communications Bureau Chief. “(The new model) has not yet gone through the same peer review and publication process as (the old model). Until that happens, we want the Commission and the public to see estimates from both models in our report.”
The older model was developed with the University of Montana and uses hunter surveys, locations of known wolves, and habitat covariates, relying on wolf counts through 2018. The updated model took several years to develop and incorporates calculations collected between 2007 and 2025.
small quota is a matter of concern
The proposed rules set the statewide hunting quota at 250 wolves, down from 452 last year. If the new estimate of 725 wolves is reliable, that quota could wipe out nearly a third of the state’s total population.
Josh Schott, Rocky Mountain coordinator for the conservation group Team Wolf, said the new data confirm long-standing criticism. “Wildlife biologists, conservationists and advocates have been saying that FWP has been overcounting wolf numbers for years,” he said. “Now we have proof that there are 400 fewer wolves than they were saying.”
Schott warned that meeting the proposed quota would bring the population down to the legal minimum, leaving no room for poaching or disease. Montana’s management plan sets the minimum legal population at 15 breeding pairs, or about 450 wolves statewide. He said that keeping populations to a minimum reduces the chances of healthy, resilient populations and full ecological recovery.
Management history and next steps
The Northern Rocky Mountain gray wolf has been protected under the Endangered Species Act since 1973. Between 1979 and 1996, federal agencies worked to restore wolves in northwestern Montana, central Idaho, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and animals from those populations expanded into Montana. The population was federally extirpated in 2011, with management transferred to FWP. The hunting season started in 2009.
The FWP Fish and Wildlife Commission will discuss the proposed 2026-27 rules at its regular meeting on August 19, when commissioners can approve or amend the proposal. Public comment will be accepted through August 12 and during the meeting, in person or virtually. Online registration for virtual participation will begin on August 4 and will close at noon on August 18.
