While there has been growth over the past 12 months, the truckload landscape has also become fragmented. (Granddriver/Getty Images)
key takeaways:
- The June 16 logistics report said the freight decline is over and truckloads are unevenly recovering, with pricing and capacity varying by region.
- The Kearney authors attributed the higher rates primarily to capacity exhaust, with ATA’s for-hire tonnage index rising 2.6% through early 2026.
- The authors said shippers should maintain long-term contracts on strategic lanes, while carriers avoid treating the supply reset as a surge in demand.
The ongoing recovery in the freight forwarder market is unlike any previous upswing and is disrupting the uniformity of the national truckload market in a more distinct way than ever before, according to a study. Released on June 16.
The study authors say it is clear that the market has turned around and that the longest freight recession in the industry’s memory has ended, but incredible uncertainty still remains.
“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the cycle of decline has ended and we are clearly on the road to recovery,” study co-author Andres Mendoza Peña, partner at consulting firm Kearney, said during a press conference to unveil the report.
However, in the ongoing recovery, demand remains uneven, and freight activity has not increased due to traditional growth catalysts such as housing, inventory replenishment and trade flows, the 2026 Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals State of Logistics report finds.
During the first four months of 2026, the American Trucking Association’s for-hire tonnage index increased 2.6% compared to the same period in 2025.
The main reason for the rate increase is overflowing capacity, but ongoing uncertainty is also a factor.
“Today, fog has become an operating environment. Geopolitical uncertainty, trade restructuring, energy volatility, inflation pressures and rapid technological change have combined to create a new era of persistent disruption,” said Korhan Aker, lead author of the study and partner in Kearney’s Strategic Operations practice.
The report’s precursor to 2025 described a fog of uncertainty over the freight market, especially as tariffs negated a vague outlook about the coming quarters for logistics executives whose business depends on clear planning.
The report’s authors found that while there has been growth over the past 12 months, the truckload landscape has also become fragmented.
“Truckload is no longer a national market, with pricing and capacity varying sharply by region and lane. Fuel inflation has disproportionately impacted owner-operators and small fleets, contributing to supply-side exhaust and a tight capacity environment,” Acker said.
National averages still provide context, Aaker and his colleagues at Kearney found, but the operational reality is increasingly obscured.
Some lanes operate smoothly, while other freight corridors become increasingly tight or command a premium, regardless of national demand or seasonal expectations.
National averages still provide context, but the operational reality is increasingly hidden. (Granddriver/Getty Images)
ACT Research noted in late May that demand for dry vans remains uneven, and cost pressures are still limiting fleet expansion. It said that the market seems to be moving ahead in the initial phase of the uptrend.
As a result, the study found that shippers should preserve long-term contracts where possible, especially on strategic lanes where continuity, service and capacity assurance matter.
Another factor worth assimilating, the study authors found, is that partial truckloads are becoming more relevant in the space between less-than-truckload and full truckload loads.
Partial truckloads are typically for shipments spanning between 5,000 pounds and 27,000 pounds or between six and 18 pallets.
This freight segment can cut shippers’ payments for unused trailer capacity as well as avoid some of the handling complexity associated with LTL.
The report’s authors said it works best when carriers or brokers can combine compatible freight forwarders, create efficient pickup and delivery sequences, preserve service commitments, and, as a result, control costs without sacrificing reliability.
Furthermore, the authors warned that 2026 will not reward broader market sentiments. He said carriers should avoid mistaking a supply reset for a surge in demand and shippers can’t assume that the softening national freight index guarantees easy capacity.
