SMBs are generally a priority target for carriers due to the high margins available. (vitfo/Getty Images)
key takeaways:
- The DHL Express US survey found that most SMBs meet or exceed 2026 expectations, indicating support for trucking margins, especially LTL carriers.
- The survey said 38% outperformed first-half plans, 36% met forecasts and 85% were confident of meeting targets for the remainder of 2026.
- Trade and fuel uncertainty remains, with US-Mexico talks scheduled to resume the week of July 20 and Canada not formally involved.
Most small and medium-sized businesses are meeting or outperforming expectations in 2026, a development that bodes well for trucking companies’ margins, especially less-than-truckload carriers.
According to a recent survey, SMB owners and decision makers are also optimistic about the prospects for the remainder of 2026, a stance that is likely to extend the ongoing recovery in the freight forwarder market.
SMBs are generally a priority target for carriers due to the high margins available.
FedEx Freight – the largest LTL carrier in North America, which debuted at No. 4 on Transportation Topics’ top 100 largest for-hire carriers list following its June 1 initial public offering – is targeting SMBs in the $9 billion LTL market segment.
Meanwhile, TFI International saw a turnaround in the fortunes of its TForce Freight unit over the past 18 months after targeting higher SMB market share as part of a revamp of the LTL division. TFI ranks sixth among the TT100 available for hire and eighth among LTL carriers.
More than a third of SMBs responding to the DHL Express US survey said they outperformed their 2026 plans during the first half of the year.
Some 14% said they “far exceeded” expectations, and 24% said they “slightly exceeded” them. Another 36% responded that they were meeting forecasts.
Optimism for the remainder of 2026 is high, with 85% of SMB executives expressing confidence about meeting targets for the remainder of 2026 and 31% indicating that they were very confident of doing so.
Underscoring that optimism is economic activity in manufacturing, with the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI report showing the sixth consecutive expansion in June. The overall economy continued to expand for the 20th consecutive month.
This optimism bodes well for the US economy given increased input cost inflation, fuel price shocks and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on supply chains.
(Daniel Acker/Bloomberg)
“One of the most important findings of our mid-year 2026 SME survey is how optimistic America’s small and medium-sized businesses are right now, which is not necessarily something you would expect,” Greg Hewitt, CEO of DHL Express US, said in comments released alongside the survey of small to medium-sized business executives (SMEs).
The freight market’s expected 2025 recovery was delayed by fears of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and an hawkish approach to trade policy.
“Nearly eight in 10 SMEs told us that tariffs and trade restrictions have increased their costs, and two-thirds have already passed some of this on to customers,” Hewitt said. “Margin compression is forcing businesses to make tough decisions about where and how to grow internationally; they are not abandoning global ambition but realigning it.”
According to the survey, 66% of businesses affected by the tariffs have raised prices to compensate for the higher costs.
However, further uncertainty awaits after US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States will not be renewed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement Trade Agreement.
(Rod Lamky Jr./Associated Press)
USMCA has offered trade stability with America’s two largest trading partners for the past six years, boosting cross-border trucking activity, including the LTL segment.
The first bilateral round of review talks between the United States and Mexico took place in Mexico City during the week of May 25. The US and Mexico are scheduled to meet the week of July 20 for a third round of bilateral talks, according to Greer’s office.
Canada has not yet formally joined the talks.
Meanwhile, diesel prices remain a concern for SMBs and carriers alike, with the nationwide average price at the pump on June 29 at $4.668 per gallon. The average price across the country was $3.477 per gallon at the beginning of the year and reached a high of $5.639 per gallon in May due to uncertainty over the U.S. and Israel’s bombing of Iran and its consequences.
DHL Express US surveyed more than 400 SME decision makers across various industries for the study.
