Mack Trucks plant in Macungie, PA. “Order activity in June reflects the strength we are seeing across the industry,” says Jonathan Randall, Mack Trucks North America. (Mac Truck)
key takeaways:
- ACT Research reported that North American Class 8 orders increased 231% year over year to 31,400 units in June.
- Analysts said improving freight rates and carrier profitability are continuing to support truck demand.
- Industry participants are closely monitoring the proposed EPA rule changes and future trade policy developments.
North American Class 8 truck orders posted the largest year-over-year increase for seven consecutive months.
Preliminary data from ACT Research showed orders for June rose 231% to 31,400 units. This is the biggest jump so far in 2026 and an 18% sequential improvement from 26,576. The report said these results suggest that either the industry will grow more than expected at the end of the year, or orders will grow faster in the first half of 2027.
“The seven-month run of strong Class 8 order activity has been underpinned by a sustained, supply-led and demand-supported recovery,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Truck drivers only buy trucks when they make money. Freight rates continue to rise.”
Environmental Protection Agency Proposed changes to its 2027 heavy-duty engine rule on July 9. The biggest change would be easing warranty requirements, which truck and engine makers have warned could increase costs and complicate the rollout of new diesel engines. The proposal would leave underlying emissions standards in place when adjusting useful-life requirements and allow non-conformity penalties for some diesel engines that cannot immediately meet the 2027 limits.
BREAKING: The Trump EPA is proposing to fix the previous administration’s impractical truck rule — which would save truckers $12B, up to $6,000 per new truck. Lower costs for truck drivers means lower prices for your family, and more consumer choices. https://t.co/jhpTVP1pmb
– US EPA (@EPA) 9 July 2026
“It’s likely that orders are already spilling over into the Q1 slot in 2027, placing bets on the details of the changes to the EPA 2027 NOx revisions,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR Transportation Intelligence.
FTR found that Class 8 initial net orders increased 241% year-on-year to 30,500 units in June and saw sequential growth of 16%. The results were also 68% above the month’s 10-year average, but the report indicates recent year-over-year growth pales in comparisons.
“With demand for 2026 exceeding build slots, a key question is EPA’s enforcement position in the early months of the regulation,” Moyer said. “The key question on the score is whether the proposed changes include a non-conformity penalty.”
Moyer also warned about policy uncertainty going forward due to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The trade agreement limits the effective impact of Section 232 truck and parts tariffs while it is in place, but the U.S. decision not to renew the agreement in its current form has fueled uncertainty over when negotiations will resume.
Volvo Trucks North America tracked similar results, with its data showing that orders across the US and Canada rose 18.5% sequentially to 29,148 units.
“The high order number is actually a bit of a surprise, as most OEMs sell out significantly throughout the year,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at VTNA. “To me, this indicates that one or more OEMs have opened their order books for 2027 as well.”
Koeck said that as rates improve, carriers are becoming more optimistic. He also said the fleet’s freight volume still needs to increase further to see meaningful improvement in profitability.
“Order activity in June reflects the strength we are seeing across the industry, driven largely by pre-buys ahead of 2027 EPA regulations, as well as a solid commercial market and early signs of a cyclical recovery in the highway segment,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “We are excited by what this signals for the broader freight cycle over the next year.”
