Certainty aids trading volume and therefore trucking, as executives and investors can make more informed decisions. (Judy Bottoni/Associated Press)
key takeaways:
- The United States did not renew the USMCA by the July 1 review deadline, raising concerns that a new trade agreement could take years.
- Officials said the uncertainty could disrupt shipping, sourcing and compliance as cross-border truck freight traffic increased sharply in April, including a 23.4% increase with Mexico.
- The United States and Mexico plan a third round of talks the week of July 20, while talks with Canada have not started.
Concerns are growing after the United States decided not to renew its trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, saying the deal could take years to complete.
The July 1 deadline to review the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement was widely expected to be missed, but the lack of clarity is increasing volatility in a freight market that is looking for an easy ride to greater prosperity after the longest recession in industry memory.
“I wonder if this will be something we’ll live with for the next few years and then maybe something will be signed to a long-term agreement,” Mark Kunar, CEO of DHL Supply Chain North America, told Transport Topics.
Certainty aids trading volume and therefore trucking, as executives and investors can make more informed decisions.
“The uncertainty before any formal policy change could impact shipping patterns, sourcing conversations and compliance planning,” Miguel Hernandez, a terminal manager at Bennett Motor Express, told TT.
Hernandez is based in Laredo, Texas, the nation’s busiest land port, handling about 40% of all truck traffic coming from Mexico, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Bennett Motor Express, part of the Bennett Family of Cos, is ranked 38th on the TT Top 100 list of the largest rental carriers in North America.
Trucks transported $98.4 billion in goods across the United States’ two land borders in April, an 18.8% increase from April 2025.
Detroit; Port Huron, Michigan; and Buffalo, NY, were the top entry and exit points for US freight flows with Canada by truck, while Laredo; El Paso, Texas; and Otay Mesa, California, were the busiest border crossings to and from Mexico.
According to BTS data released on June 25, the value of goods transported between the US and Mexico in April was $86 billion, up 23.4% compared to April 2025.
Some of the key points of the USMCA talks will be related to the auto industry.
Cox Fleet’s Kevin Clark discusses how fleets must rethink their maintenance strategies to remain efficient and flexible. Tune in by going above or RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
In May, trade associations representing the majority of the North American auto market wrote to U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer – who heads the United States’ negotiating team – calling on the Trump administration to strengthen and extend the deal.
In late June, the US Chamber of Commerce urged lawmakers to support maintaining the USMCA as a set of stable, predictable rules for North American commerce and to encourage “prompt, transparent, and orderly” review.
Andrew Williams, CEO of DHL Express America, said in a separate statement: “For logistics providers and customers, the ability to efficiently move goods across borders while reducing friction and complexity is essential to maintaining integrated supply chains in North America.”
The United States will meet with Mexico the week beginning July 20 for a third round of bilateral talks related to the USMCA review. Official negotiations with Canada have not yet begun.
In early June Canada and Mexico officially asked the US to renew the agreement, which was in sharp contrast to the US position.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has continued to criticize Prime Minister Mark Carney and his countrymen, including in social media posts saying Canada should become a US state and that Americans don’t want anything from north of the border.
(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The comments come against a backdrop of uncertainty over US trade policy under Trump, which has rocked global commerce through 2025 and heavily contributed to dampening hopes for a goods market boom last year.
But R+L Carriers, Southeastern Freight Lines and A. Carriers such as Dui Pile expanded their cross-border operations over the past 18 months to take advantage of the USMCA agreement at a time when growth in other business opportunities was low. R+L Carriers is ranked 16th in the For-Hire TT100, while SEFL is ranked 24th and Pyle is ranked 51st.
However, the trade policy maelstrom offered supply chains and carriers some respite from the uncertainty over the USMCA.
“Changes in trade and tariff policies last year gave many organizations the opportunity to stress-test their supply chains and identify where greater flexibility and resiliency is needed,” Kunar said.
What comes next is all about planning and modeling, according to the top executive of DHL Supply Chain, which ranks 12th on the TT Top 100 list of North America’s largest logistics companies.
He told TT that carriers and third-party logistics companies should identify exposed lanes and customers and prepare for dynamic cross-border changes.
“It may not happen, but (everyone) should do scenario planning for it,” he said, adding that shippers should continue to look at single points of failure that will be impacted by the change.
The USMCA became effective on July 1, 2020. Under Article 34.7 of the treaty, the three governments had to decide by July 1 whether to extend it for another 16 years. If a party refuses to do so, the USMCA initiates a cycle of annual reviews.
