Highlight Motor Group is one of the large motor carriers that is expecting the improvement trend in the medium freight market to continue in 2026. (Highlight Motor Group)
key takeaways:
- Major for-hire carriers reported improving freight conditions in 2026, with rising volumes and rates indicating the industry is emerging from a prolonged recession.
- The recovery remains uneven and largely supply-driven, with capacity tightening, higher costs and mixed demand across segments shaping a gradual, moderate rebound.
- Carriers expect a modest recovery to continue through the end of 2026, with strong pricing, disciplined operations and external risks such as economic conditions and geopolitics influencing results.
Trucking companies are seeing improving freight market conditions this year and for the most part agree with the emerging consensus that the industry is finally recovering from a prolonged decline, but some concerns and cautions still remain.
As part of its 2026 Top 100 For-Hire Carriers project, Transport Topics asked large for-hire motor carriers to share their outlook on the current state of the freight market and their projections regarding rate and volume trends for the remainder of the year.
Almost all companies participating in this part of the questionnaire cited some degree of improvement this year, but some said that freight volumes remained uneven across different industry sectors and often predicted a gradual improvement in the back half of 2026 rather than a sharp surge.
The following comments are excerpts from survey responses submitted by a diverse group of large and medium-sized motor carriers between late April and early June.
“We view the current North American freight market as a transitional recovery phase – characterized by stable but unpredictable demand, capacity reductions and gradual pricing improvements. This is not a cyclical boom, but rather a disciplined operating environment where execution, cost control and customer alignment will determine the winners.” — Transservice Logistics/Lily Transportation
“We’re finally seeing volumes pick up. Client rates are being re-evaluated, even some mid bid cycle. I see a strong 2026 and ending 2027 strong.” — Cheema Freightlines
“I agree that we are emerging from a down cycle. We are seeing less capacity and more demand over the last few months. Additionally, contract and spot rates are rising. Some of this is due to less capacity.” — cargo transporter
“Business levels are currently the strongest since 2023. Rates and utilization are expected to improve into the mid to upper single digits.” — Melton Truck Lines
“There appears to be some tightening in the industry which has allowed for some rate increases, but it is slow going and substantial improvements are still needed to return the freight industry back to being a profitable industry.” — Groendyke Transport
“We are cautiously optimistic about our eventual emergence from this prolonged downcycle.” — CR England
“The freight market is clearly at an inflection point. After almost four years of long downcycles driven by excess capacity and soft demand, we are now seeing meaningful signs of transition towards a tighter environment. It is becoming increasingly clear that the industry is bottoming out, driven by the growing need for qualified, experienced drivers among carriers who have been compliant and operated responsibly over time. What we are seeing now is the ability to exit the market faster than demand, which has “Starting to put upward pressure on rates.” — Toofan Express
“Cautiously optimistic for the balance of 2026. We currently see modest growth. Concerns continue over Iran war developments.” — Dayton Freight Lines
“We’re still stuck in a freight recession, but we’re seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.” — Penske Logistics
“There has been a lot of improvement, particularly in the flatbed sector. This improvement appears to be more supply driven than demand driven. Rates should be at least 10% higher during 2026 versus 2025.” — PS Logistics
“Yes, rates appear to be trending upward, but shippers are still trying to keep costs down and take advantage of bids to keep pressure on rates.” — system freight
“We believe the North American freight market is in a transition phase, not a full recovery. After a long downcycle that began in 2022, conditions have meaningfully improved in 2026, but the recovery remains uneven and is largely supply driven rather than demand. We also believe the bottom of the cycle is behind us; however, we are not yet in a true expansion cycle. Most indicators point to a gradual normalization rather than a sharp rebound. Within drayage and port-focused trucking, dynamics are slightly more constructive than the broader truckload market, with import volumes growing slowly, with forecasts pointing to mid-single-digit growth through parts of 2026. Gulf Winds International
“We are seeing a period of recovery in demand and pricing.” — Blackhawk Transport
“We are seeing higher activity over the last three months, which is encouraging.” — Apache Logistics
“Positive! Our volume has increased significantly year-on-year. We expect to exceed the revenue target for this year.” — hogland transfer
“We expect demand to continue to be positive, providing very good year-over-year traction, especially compared to the very soft Q3 and Q4.” — Oak Harbor Freight Lines
Portland, Ore.-based truckload carrier Market Express cautioned that demand still hasn’t fully recovered. (Market Express)
“We still believe the industry freight traffic is in a recession, and I would be cautious in saying we are completely out of the recession cycle. Conditions are improving compared to where we were over the past few years, he said, and there are early signs of stabilization. … From our perspective, this is less of a full recovery and more of a gradual transition. Capacity is strengthening, which is helping support rates, but demand across the board hasn’t come back in a meaningful or consistent way. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, we expect rates to continue to strengthen slightly, but we do not expect sharp growth. — Market Express
“The North American freight market appears to be gradually stabilizing after an extended, highly cyclical recession, but we believe the recovery remains uneven across sectors and regions. While some freight segments are experiencing higher shipment volumes and more disciplined capacity, pricing pressures and operational instability are impacting many carriers. … Ahead of the rest of 2026, we anticipate a moderate recovery in freight activity and a more rational pricing environment, although not a rapid rebound.” Carriers with solid operational discipline, diverse service offerings, strategic technology investments and long-term customer relationships will be best positioned to navigate the next phase of the market cycle. Alina Savo, Marketing Director, Highlight Motor Group
“Yes, (the) market is seeing momentum for a recovery. A combination of regulation enforcement and real demand. Rate increases will need to be measured at 10% or better by the end of the year.” — Gaurav Transport
“(We) agree that the market is improving and rates will go up.” — raider express
“Recently, Pitt Ohio has seen strong and growing demand for our LTL services. While the contraction in driver supply in the truckload market is well documented – and has contributed to some diversion of freight traffic into LTL – our growth is being driven primarily by increased demand from industrial and manufacturing shippers. Based on current trends, we expect this momentum to continue and strengthen through 2026.” — pitt ohio
LTL Peninsula Truck Lines, based in Federal Way, Washington (Peninsula Truck Lines) says the freight market is bullish for the remainder of 2026.
“The freight market looks to break out of the freight recession in the second quarter of 2026. We believe this is the beginning of an upward trend that should continue through the rest of 2026.” — Peninsula Truck Lines
“We believe that capacity in the tank truck sector has adjusted to a certain level that meets demand so any increase in freight volumes as we are seeing today will put pressure on capacity.” — Andrews Logistics
“We are seeing truckload recovery and slow growth in the LTL market right now.” — Roadrunner Freight
“Many variables are reducing transportation capacity and changing market dynamics. Rising costs affecting non-domiciled drivers and regulatory changes, coupled with (English language efficiency) enforcement, are driving capacity out of the market. As capacity tightens, transportation costs, including fuel costs, increase, further straining supply. NFI’s primary dedicated model provides insulation from this volatility.” — nfi
“It’s evolving rapidly. It looks like it’s going to be incredibly busy now and for the foreseeable future.” — long distance trucking
“Demand is modestly improving, but carriers face increased fuel, insurance, labor and equipment costs that are pressuring margins. Overall, this looks more like a slow and uneven normalization than a return to the freight traffic boom post-COVID.” — Chief Express
“Yes, we are out of the down cycle – just hopeful it will last more than a few months. After the Fourth of July break, we will know if this will continue for the rest of the year. The US recession will definitely put a halt to that.” — PGT Holdings
Intermodal carrier STG Logistics expects a measured recovery rather than a rapid recovery. (STG Logistics)
“The North American freight market is finally beginning to emerge from a prolonged recession, although the recovery remains gradual and uneven. We are seeing improvements in spot rates, a better balance between supply and demand, and greater stability in import and intermodal volumes than in the past several years. … Although the recovery will be measured rather than rapid, increased regulatory, insurance and legal pressures should continue to underpin a more disciplined operating environment across the industry.” — STG Logistics
“(We believe) things are changing, but remain cautious about things like the war in Iran, interest rates, consumer spending, etc.” — Anderson Trucking Service
“We have seen a measurable improvement in the freight market over the past year, and we believe this growth trend will continue. We expect to see growth in rates and volumes from our side throughout 2026.” — United Petroleum Transports
